分析大坝在整个填筑过程中的沉降特点,提出采用Gompertz模型预测其沉降量的方法.采用某大坝的沉降监测数据对该模型的适用性进行了验证,与其他传统预测方法进行了对比,发现该法比双曲线模型、幂函数模型与对数函数模型的预测精度要高.最后采用Gompertz模型对3座大坝的沉降进行预测,与实测结果进行对比,最大误差均在5％以内.当利用现有观测数据预测后期沉降量时,利用越多的观测数据可以获得更好的预测精度.%Based on the analysis of settlement characteristics of dam during whole filling process,a method which using Gompertz model is proposed to predict the settlement of dam.The applicability of model is verified by a group of monitoring data of a dam.Compared the results with other traditional forecasting methods,the Gompertz model has higher prediction accuracy than hyperbolic model,power function model and logarithmic function model.The settlements of three dams are finally predicted by Gompertz model,and the comparison of these results with actual monitoring data show that the maximum error is less than 5％.When using pre-observation data to predict later settlement,the use of more observation data can get better prediction accuracy.
展开▼
