汉江中下游突发性水污染事故预测模型研究

摘要

基于MIKE11模型的水动力模块、对流扩散模块,建立了汉江中下游一维水动力水质预警预报模型,对模型进行了率定和验证,计算值与实测值吻合较好.应用该模型模拟了汉江典型断面襄阳和仙桃在枯水期发生突发水污染事故,污染物高锰酸盐指数到达下游不同断面的时间和浓度值,结果表明,该模型能够较准确地模拟和预测突发水污染事故条件下污染物的影响程度和迁移过程,可为汉江中下游突发水朽染事故应急方案制定提供科学依据.%Based on the hydrodynamic module and convection diffusion module of MIKE11,the model of one-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality prediction in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River is established,and the model is calibrated and verified.The calculation values agree well with measured values.The arrival time and concentration of pollutant at different downstream sections of Hanjiang River are simulated by using the model when sudden water pollution accident occurred in Xiangyang and Xiantao during dry season.The results show that the model can accurately simulate and predict the influence degree and migration process of pollutants under the conditions of sudden water pollution accident.The resuhs can provide scientific basis for the emergency plan of water pollution accident in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River.