基于自助法的我国清洁能源需求预测

摘要

Based on the energy consumption in China in past years,the Life Cycle model (LC) is established by using Accelerated Genetic Algorithm.In order to further characterize the uncertainty of calculated value of the model and improve the accuracy of model,the Bootstrap method is used to re-sample the calculation deviation,and then the energy consumption Life Circle model based on Bootstrap method (LC-B) is established.Combined with relevant policy,China's demand for clean energy in 2020 is forecasted.The results show that the demand for clean energy in China will reach 4.96 billion-8.51 billion tee in 2020.%以我国历年能源消费量为基础,利用加速遗传算法建立了生命回旋预测模型(LC).为了进一步刻画预测模型计算值的不确定性,提高预测模型的准确性,运用自助法对计算误差进行重抽样,建立了基于自助法的能源消费量生命回旋预测模型(LC-B),并结合相关政策预测2020年我国清洁能源需求总量.研究结果表明,2020年,我国清洁能源需求量将到达4.96亿～8.51亿tce.