中国区域地面气象要素数据集在长江上游流域的适用性评估

摘要

从中国区域地面要素数据集中选取1980年～ 2010年中国区域的降水和气温两个要素,与实测降水、气温资料进行对比分析,采用确定性系数、纳什系数、平均误差和均方根误差4个指标分别从时间变化特征和空间分布特征两个方面对地面要素集的降水资料和气温资料在长江上游流域内数据质量进行系统性评估.结果表明,气象网格数据与实测数据总体误差较小,纳什系数接近于l,拟合度高,具有很好的一致性;气温数据具有很好的一致性,而降水数据在不同子流域数据质量不同.%To assess the applicability of China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) in upper Yangtze River Basin,the time variation and spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature between 1980 and 2010 are chosen and then compared with Chinese sites-based observations in terms of goodness of fit,Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient,mean bias error and root mean square error.The results show that the precipitation and temperature of CMFD are generally good consistency with those of observations in terms of a lower bias,a higher NS coefficient and a higher goodness of fit.In addition,the temperature data show a good consistency while the quality of CMFD precipitation data is different in different sub-basins.