高寒山区流域径流对气候变化的响应研究

摘要

为了能更好地了解和掌握高寒山区流域径流对气候变化的响应，以塔吉克斯坦国瓦赫什河流域为研究区，以含融雪结构的新安江模型为基础，建立适用于该研究流域的水文数字模型，并利用该模型结合不同的气候情景假设分析流域径流对气候变化的响应。结果表明：①降水量减少20％时，平均增幅为－6．48％；降水量增加20％时，平均增幅为12．69％；②气温升高1℃时，平均增幅为9．98％；气温升高2℃时，平均增幅为16．51％；③气温的变化对该流域径流的影响较为显著，降水量的变化对流域径流的影响比较小。%In order to better understand and grasp the runoff of the river basin response to climate change in cold alpine areas , this article takes Vakhsh river basin as the research area , the digital hydrological model based on including Xinanjiang model with the thaw structure is established , and by using this model combined with the climate scenarios assuming different analysis of response of runoff to climate change .The results demonstrated that:①The precipitation of Vakhsh river basin in the annual distribution is not uniform , and the precipitation Mainly concentrated in the winter; ②when the precipitation reduces 20 percent , the average increases range is -6.48%, When the pre-cipitation increases 20 percent , the average increases range is 12.69%; ③The change of tempera-ture effect on the runoff are more significant , effect of rainfall change on runoff is relatively small .