基于蒙特卡罗FTA与FMECA的顶吹熔炼系统可靠性研究

摘要

针对顶吹熔炼系统故障频发且难以预测的问题，提出一种基于蒙特卡罗算法FTA与FMECA相结合的顶吹熔炼系统可靠性分析模型。根据某冶炼总厂近四年的顶吹熔炼系统生产数据，首先建立故障树模型，利用蒙特卡罗算法对FTA底事件进行重要度分析，然后通过FMECA方法对重要度较高的底事件进行故障模式和危害度分析，从而指出影响顶吹熔炼系统可靠性的主要因素和最薄弱环节，结果与生产实践对比基本一致，验证了此方法的有效性，最终为顶吹熔炼系统可靠性优化和维修策略构建提供了理论方法。%To solve the problems of the system of top-submerged smelting having many faults and it is difficult to control, a reliability analysis model is proposed by Monte Carlo Method FTA and FMECA. According to the top-submerged smelting system failure data of four years provided by the smelting company, firstly, the model of FTA is established, using Monte Carlo method to analyze the importance of bottom events of FTA, then by the method of FMECA analyzes the failure mode and the criticality of the bottom events with higher importance. The main factors and weakest link which affect the system of top-submerged smelting reliability are pointed out. The model analysis results show that the analysis is effective and accuracy compared with engineering practice and expert experience. Finally, provide a theoretical basis for reliability optimization and maintenance strategy of top-submerged smelting system.