基于Bayes方法的导航用国产行波管放大器可靠性评估

摘要

导航用国产行波管放大器在轨数量少,工作时长不足,属于小子样产品.利用传统的统计学方法评定可靠性结果趋于保守,而利用先验信息的Bayes方法正好弥补这一不足.本文给出了一种创建导航用国产行波管放大器可靠性先验分布的方法,并在此基础上,利用Bayes方法实现了先验信息与现场信息的有效融合.对航天五院西安分院研制的导航用国产化行波管放大器在轨产品,采用指数型先验分布的产品可靠性评估,可以在小样本情况下显著提高评估精度.%Domestic traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTAs) used in navigation is few in orbit with limited working time,which belongs to small sample products.Reliability evaluation results obtained by traditional statistical methods tend to be conservative,while Bayesian method based on prior information can make up for this deficiency.A method for establishing the reliability prior distribution of domestic TWTAs for navigation is presented,and so prior information can be effectively merged with test data using Bayesian method.Reliability evaluation for navigation satellites TWTAs show that the accuracy of evaluation can be improved significantly by using Bayesian estimation with exponent prior distribution in the case of small samples.