预期对我国住房市场政策调控效果影响的实证分析

摘要

Eexpectation plays a very important role in affecting the result of our domestic real estate market macro-control policy.From the aspect of formation mechanism,expectation can be categorized into static expectation,extrapolation expectation,adaptive expectation,and rational expectation.However,due to its particularity,expectation category of domestic real estate market is between adaptive expectation and rational expectation,i.e.quasi rational expectation.By establishing a housing price macro-control model and conducting positive analysis,it is concluded that quasi rational expectation is effective and meets with the reality.Expectation is the most important factor of affecting housing prices,and it magnifies price fluctuation and it is unstable so that the macro-control is even harder.Basically,housing price is direct proportion to expectation,and is most fragile to public expectation among all influencing factors.%预期对房地产行业调控政策的实施效果有着重要的作用。一般来说,从形成机制可以把预期分为静态预期、外推型预期、适应性预期和理性预期,而我国的房地产市场因其特殊性,是介于适应性预期与理性预期之间的准理性预期。通过建立住房价格调控模型并进行实证分析后,可以发现准理性预期是一种效果较好且与实际更相符的预期;预期是影响房价的最主要因素,而预期对于房价的放大效应和预期的不稳定性又使得政策调控增加了一定的难度;房价基本上与预期成正比关系。