城市轨道交通线网客流动态起讫点估计框架及关键技术

摘要

Since the current passenger flow dynamic OD es-timation model is not applicable to rail transit network,a new framework of dynamic OD estimation is constructed, key tech-nologies in the estimation framework are discussed. Based on the data of automatic ticketing system,by obtaining the OD matrix of passenger flow historical data and the gate informa-tion of rail transit lines,this framework combines the historical passenger flow data with their travel time and processes,estab-lishes the dynamic relationship between OD flow and station passenger information. Finally,through analyzing the passen-ger demands and the distribution of their traveling times,a dynamic OD estimation model is constructed, the performance of the OD estimation model is tested by normalized RMSE (root-mean-square-error)and other indexes.%针对既有动态OD(起讫点)估计方法在轨道交通线网中适用性不强的问题,构建城市轨道交通线网客流动态OD估计框架,并讨论所涉及的关键技术.框架构建以自动售检票系统数据为基础,提取线网客流历史OD矩阵和进出站客流信息;结合乘客出行过程和历史客流OD数据,构建OD流和进出站客流间的动态流量关系;最后,通过分析客流需求和行程时间的分布特征,构建动态OD估计模型,并引入标准化均方根误差等指标评估OD估计模型的性能.