岩溶塌陷是山东省临沂市区最重要的地质灾害类型，一旦发生，会带来较大的经济和财产损失，因此对岩溶塌陷的风险评价十分必要。风险评价包括现状评价和预测评价，主要分3个步骤来完成：危险性评价、易损性评价和期望损失评价。利用地下水流模型确定调采方案下的相关评价因子，预测了岩溶塌陷的风险性。通过比较发现，经过地下水调采后，原岩溶塌陷高风险区范围大为缩小。地下水流数值模型和风险评价方法结合，可以确定合理的岩溶水规划开采方案，对于指导和防治岩溶塌陷具有重要意义。%The karst collapse is the most important types of geological disasters in Linyi city of Shandong province. Once the occurrence of karst collapses, it may lead to greater economic and property losses, so it should be very necessary for risk control and prediction of karst collapse. Risk assessment includes current situation evaluation and forecast evaluation, mainly consists of three steps: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and expected loss evaluation. This paper adopts the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on AHP method in risk assessment firstly, then vulnerability assessment and expected loss evaluation is given, and a comprehensive assessment classification map of present situation is developed. The risk of karst collapse is predicted using the groundwater flow model with witch the relevant evaluation factor is determined by the adjusting groundwater pumping scheme. By comparison, the high risk area of karst collapse is greatly reduced through adjusting pumping scheme. It has important significance to prevent occurrence of karst collapse by the reasonable karst water pumping scheme with the combination of numerical model of groundwater flow and risk assessment methods.
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