四阶段法在水运交通量预测中的应用

摘要

预测水运交通量可以为水运交通的规划、设计和船舶通航管理提供基础性的依据。预测采用的方法很多，但是多数方法只是针对单条航道水运交通量的发展规律进行研究，并没有揭示周边航道对其产生的影响。文中从“四阶段法”的基本思想入手，对船舶货运量生成、分布，航道船型，水运交通量分配4个阶段进行预测分析，得出该方法能较好地解决网络交通量的预测问题。%Prediction of waterway traffic flow can provide fundamental basis for water transportation planning,design and ship navigation management.There are many forecasting methods,but most methods are only for a single channel to research the law of the development of marine traffic,don't reveal the impact of surrounding channel.In this paper,from the basic idea of “four-stage method”, the forecast analysis of four stages of generation,distribution of ship traffic volume,channel type, and marine traffic assignment are performed,it is concluded that the method can well solve the prob-lem of network traffic prediction.