基于随机模拟法的污染风险指数研究

摘要

In this paper, Oilmap is used in the stochastic simulation and statistical analysis, and puts for-ward the calculation method of pollution risk index,for the accident the surrounding islands coastline from the oil spill risk assessment. This paper combines the case studied, oil spill accidents may occur on the Ningbo-Zhoushan port public channel cross point of random simulation statistical analysis, using Oilmap calculate the accident point surrounding waters pollution probability, the fastest time of polluted waters, the waters around the islands was pollution accident risk index calculation. The results show that, by using random simulation statistical analysis and pollution risk index calculation, the specific accident pollution risk ranking on the surrounding islands, to provide technical support for the regional emergency decision making of oil spill emergency resource allocation and post accident.%本文将Oilmap用于随机模拟统计分析，并提出了污染风险指数的计算方法，用于事故点周边岛屿岸线遭受溢油污染风险程度评估。本文结合案例进行了应用研究，对宁波-舟山港公共航道交叉点可能发生的溢油事故进行了随机模拟统计分析，采用Oilmap计算得到事故点周边海域污染概率、海域最快遭受污染时间等，对事故点周边海域的岛屿进行了污染风险指数计算。研究结果表明，采用随机模拟统计分析及污染风险指数计算，可得出特定事故点对周边岛屿的污染风险排序，从而为区域溢油应急资源配置和事故后的应急决策提供技术支持。