The complexity of flight safety system is usually affected by a variety of uncertainties. The uncertainty of overall security situation of flight safety system are hardly determined. In this work,flight safety assessment index system is firstly established based on software hardware environment liveware management(SHELM)model. And flight safety assessment is also carried out with matter?element theory algorithm to obtain safety state. According to correlation degree values of each evaluation index, key indexes affected flight safety are obtained. Under the assumption that the flight safety system is a linear dynamic system and combining the above evaluation analysis, Kalman filter algorithm is used to carry out prediction analysis on security situation. A simulation analysis is carried out based on an actual flight safety situation of an airline. The results show that the security state of airline flight safety system in a short period of time can be obtained,and main factors affecting flight safety are found out. This provides a viable way for airlines to further strengthen flight safety management.
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