基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模拟研究

摘要

The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was formed by improving Dyna-CLUE model,by embedding BRT model and Patch-dynamics model.Based on the landuse situation in Dengkou County in 2006,a case study was conducted in Dengkou County,a typical county in the ecologically fragile region.The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was used to simulate the landuse situation in 2016 in Dengkou County and compared with the Logistic_CA_Markov model which was currently used more.The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the Logistic_CA_Markov model was 0.721 4,and the Kappa coefficient of the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was 0.782 6.The simulation results of the two combinatorial models were highly accurate and both were highly consistent with the real interpretation results.BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model had high simulation accuracy and good result.Therefore,it is feasible to apply the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model to the simulation and forecast of local landuse change in order to provide some reference for the implementation of local ecological control and related policies.%通过对Dyna-CLUE模型进行改进,嵌入BRT模型和Patch-dynamics模型,形成BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型.以生态脆弱区典型县域磴口县为研究区,基于2006年磴口县土地利用情况,应用BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,对磴口县2016年的土地利用状况进行模拟预测,并与目前应用较多的Logistic_CA_Markov模型进行对比验证.结果表明,Logistic_CA_Markov模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.721 4,BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟结果的Kappa系数为0.782 6,2个组合模型的模拟结果精度较高,均与真实解译结果具有高度一致性,但BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模拟精度更高,结果更优.因此,将BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型应用于当地土地利用变化模拟预测,具有一定可行性,可为当地生态治理以及相关政策的实施提供一定的参考.