3个月平均气温距平的CCA预报方法

摘要

A statistical model is CCA-designed to forecast 3-month mean temperature anomaly in China,which is estimated by using cross-verification scheme,indicating that the skill decreases slowly with the increased leading time intervals;higher skills are found for quasi-global surface temperature as a predictor;it's easy to predict JAS temperature and hard to deal with OND analog.Some meaningful results are obtained from the forecast skill analysis.%用根据CCA方法设计的一个统计预报模式对我国3个月平均气温距平进行预报试验，并用交叉检验方法进行估计。结果表明：预报技巧随提前时间增长而减小得较少；用全球表面温度作预报因子有较高的预报技巧；7、8、9月3个月较易预报，而10、11、12月3个月较难预报。