社会抚养比对资本积累和经济增长的影响研究

摘要

通过世代交叠模型和内生经济增长理论，将人力资本投资和储蓄内生化，考察社会抚养比对资本积累和经济增长的影响，并利用我国1994~2012年的省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果表明：我国少儿抚养比增加促进人力资本积累进而促进经济增长的作用小于其抑制物质资本积累进而阻碍经济增长的作用；老年抚养比的增加先后“阻碍-促进-阻碍”了我国的经济增长；总抚养比与我国的经济增长负相关。%Based on the over lapping generation model(OLG)and the theory of endogenous e-conomic growth,this research made human capital investment and savings endogenous to explore the effect of social dependency ratio on capital accumulation and economic growth,and used the data of 1 994-2012 of the 30 provinces to do an empirical test.The results indicate that the posi-tive effects on economic growth of increased dependency ratio of children by promoting human capital accumulation was less than the inhibitory effects on economic growth by hindering the physical capital accumulation;increasing in the elderly dependency ratio hindered,promoted,and hindered the economic growth successively;overall dependency had a negative correlation with China's economic growth.