利用1978—2009年我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的数据,通过对面板数据进行单位根检验、协整检验并利用误差修正模型,考察了我国不同省市的流通产业对区域经济增长的影响。协整检验结果表明：区域流通产业发展与区域经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,区域流通产业的发展能显著促进区域经济增长,但这种影响存在明显的地区差异,流通产业对中部地区经济增长的贡献要弱于其对东、西部地区的贡献。基于误差修正模型的实证结果表明：在天津、湖南、贵州等11个省（自治区、直辖市）,误差修正机制显著发生,其流通产业发展与经济增长存在长期和短期的因果关系;在海南和重庆,误差修正机制发生,但两者仅存在长期因果关系;在北京、山西等11个省（自治区、直辖市）,误差修正机制的作用较弱,两者之间的长期因果关系不明显,但短期因果关系显著;在辽宁、江苏等7个省（自治区、直辖市）,误差修正机制尚未发生,两者间不存在长期因果关系,仅存在短期因果关系。%Using the data about 31 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions during 1978-2009,this paper studies the effects of the development of circulation industry on regional economic growth through unit root test,co-integration test and error correction model.The co-integration test result shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between circulation industry development and regional economic growth,and the development of circulation industry could promote regional economic growth obviously,but these effects are different in different regions,and the contribution of circulation industry development to economic growth of central region is weaker than that of eastern and western regions.The results based on the error correction model shows as follows：in 11 provinces,such as Tianjin,Hunan and so on,the error correction mechanism is significant,and circulation industry development is the long-term and short-term causality to regional economic growth;in Hainan and Chongqing,though error correction mechanism also exists,there is only a long-run causality between them;in 11 provinces,such as Beijing,Shanxi and so on,the error correction mechanism is weak,the long-term causality between them is not obvious,but the short-term causality is obvious;in 7 provinces,such as Liaoning,Jiangsu and so on,the error correction mechanism has not occurred,and the long-term causality between them doesn＇t exist,but the short-term causality exists.
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