农田水利PPP项目的运行机制——基于随机演化博弈

摘要

首先,将演化博弈理论应用于农田水利PPP项目运行机制中,研究并建立了农田水利PPP项目运行阶段项目公司和农户策略选择的演化博弈模型,得到了双方的支付矩阵.然后,引入高斯白噪声反映农田水利PPP项目运行过程中的随机干扰(如政府政策变化、信息不对称以及极端天气等),建立不确定性环境下农田水利PPP项目的随机演化博弈模型,并分析了随机扰动下项目公司和农户双方策略选择的稳定性.最后,运用仿真软件对模型进行情景模拟,并针对不同情境下的仿真结果提出相应的对策建议.%The evolutionary game theory is applied to the operation mechanism of PPP project of farmland water conservancy,and the evolve-ment game model of strategic choice of the project company and the farmer in project operation phase is researched and established,and the pay-ment matrix of both sides is obtained.Then Gaussian white noise is introduced to reflect the random disturbance(such as the changes of govern-ment policy,information asymmetry and extreme weather)during the operation of PPP project of farmland water conservancy.The stochastic evolutionary game model of PPP project of farmland water conservancy under uncertainty environment is established,and the stability of the strategic choices of both project company and farmer under stochastic disturbance is analyzed.Finally,the simulation software is used to simu-late the model,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward based on the simulation results in different situations.