不确定信息环境下目标毁伤效果评估

摘要

通过分析实际战场中的目标毁伤信息的不确定性,提出了不确定信息环境下需要解决的目标毁伤评估问题.采用模糊与贝叶斯理论,建立了目标毁伤等级评估模型.利用随机概率的多属性方案排序(stochasticmulti criteria acceptability analysis,SMAA)方法,给出不确定信息环境下目标毁伤效果评估方法,为解决不确定环境下目标毁伤评估问题提供了新思路.并采用蒙特卡罗仿真进行了验证,说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.%Analyzing the uncertain information of battle damage, the battle damage assessment problem in uncertain information environment is presented. The battle damage assessment function is established based on fuzzy and Bayesian theory. The method of battle damage assessment is given under the uncertain environment based on SMAA technique. A new idea to solve the problem of battle damage assessment in uncertain information environment is provided. The Monte Carlo simulation is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of this method.