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竺可桢气候变迁思想的来源

     

摘要

In the early 1970' s, the paper "A Preliminary Study on Climatic Fluctuations Dur-ing the Last 5, 000 Years in China" by Chinese geographer Co-Ching Chu ( Zhu Kezhen ) became a weapon for refuting the prevalent view of"world climatic anomaly" and the"new ice age". Nowadays it has even become a basis for some to question the theory of"man-made global warming". In order to find out the source of Co-Ching Chu's thought on climate change, this paper analyzes The Diaries of Co-Ching Chu, and finds that he was mainly influenced by the mainstream view at the conference on"climate change" hosted by UNESCO and WMO in Rome in 1961 , as well as being inspired by H. H. Lamb in some key point. It also cannot be excluded that Co-Ching Chu's attitude to abrupt cli-mate change was influenced by the ideology of the "Great Cultural Revolution".%竺可桢《中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究》一文,在20世纪70年代初为反驳"世界气候异常"和"新冰期恐慌"提供了思想资源,甚至也为质疑当前的"全球变暖人为说"提供了依据.文章以《竺可桢日记》为线索,探讨竺可桢气候变迁思想的来源,发现其受到1961年联合国教科文组织与世界气象组织联合举办的"气候变化"会议(罗马)主流观点的影响,并在亚欧大陆气候变迁的时间和空间规律问题上受到英国气象学家兰姆的启发.他对"气候突变"理论表现出的保守态度,不能排除"文革"时期意识形态的影响.

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