Electrolytic manganese(EMM)industry with a large amount of waste water and high density of pollution,belonging to the high polluting industries,is one of the main threats of pollution control and emis-sion reduction. Based on the analysis of the pollution prevention status of EMM industry,index system for pollu-tion prevention technological evaluation was built. This paper obtained weight and quantifying value of each in-dex with analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and evaluated the technology of pollution prevention using compre-hensive index. On this basis,prediction of pollution reduction potential of best available technologies(BATs) was made using bottom-up model. The result showed the total emissions of waste water would be reduced more than 2.7×106 t,the reduction of ammonia nitrogen emission could be 6.6×104 t,recovered manganese and potas-sium bichromate could be 1.9×105 t and 3.747×107 t respectively,the reduction of manganese slag emission could be 4×106 t in 2015,comparing to the baseline year 2010. It also proved that clean production technology was superior to end treatment,and clean production technology would be widely used.% 电解锰行业废水排放量大,污染物浓度高,属于高污染行业,是我国实现污染物控制减排的主要威胁之一.通过对电解锰行业污染防治现状进行分析,构建了污染防治技术评估指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重,利用综合评价值法对电解锰行业污染防治技术进行了评估.在此基础上,利用自底向上模型对评估出的最佳可行技术的污染减排潜力进行预测.结果表明,与基准年2010年相比,2015年电解锰行业废水排放总量可削减270多万吨,氨氮减排6.6×104 t,减排回收的锰和重铬酸钾可分别达到1.9×105 t和3.747×107 t,锰渣减排4×106 t；同时也表明清洁生产技术减排的能力高于末端治理技术减排,清洁生产技术具有较大的推广普及潜力.
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