基于系统动力学仿真模拟评价武汉市水资源承载力

摘要

Water resources carrying capacity has a vital influence on the economic growth and social progress in a country or region,it’s a hotspot of research on water between science and system science. Taking Wuhan City for example,combine the water resources subsystem, economic subsystem,social subsystem,the ecological environment subsystem and water pollu-tion subsystem by using the system dynamic model,build the simulation model,then make comprehensive analysis of the obtained parameter values by osculation value method. In the end,received overall best solution in the process of implementation of“national economic and social development of wuhan city twelfth five-year program”.%水资源承载力对一个国家或地区的经济增长、社会进步有着至关重要的影响，是水科学与系统科学交叉研究的热点。以武汉市为例，采用系统动力学方法将水资源子系统、经济子系统、社会子系统、生态环境子系统、水污染子系统进行有机结合，建立仿真模型，并用密切值法对所得指标值进行综合分析评价。最终得到了《武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年总体规划纲要》实施过程中的最佳方案。