人口结构、产业结构与中国经济潜在增长率

摘要

对于中国经济增长潜力的判断直接关系到宏观经济调控目标和调控方式的选择.在索洛模型框架下结合人口结构和产业结构的转型,构建经济增长系统模型,并提供利用经济结构演变信息来预测未来潜在经济增长率的简单方法;根据实际经济数据和对未来结构转型的情形设定,对中国"十三五"期间经济增长率进行模拟预测,结果显示:在经济结构转型背景下,"十三五"期间中国经济增长率将出现明显下降,大约处于6.22%~7.17%之间.未来中国经济增长将更加依赖于技术创新和人力资本积累为动力的新的增长模式.%This essay constructs a simple system of economic growth which combines Solow growth model with transforms of economic structure.Based on the scenario of economic structures in the future and empirical data, the economic growth rate is forecasted for the next five years.The result shows the decrease of capital accumulation and labor, slowness of technological progress will cut down the growth rate of China to 6.09%-7.19% in the 2016-2020.Technological progress and accumulation of human capital should play more roles in the future growth of China.