Nanjing Ming Dynasty city wall as the world's biggest ancient wall in residual scale has great conservation value. Bulging as a common type of damage does great harm to the wall and it is mainly caused by temperature and rainfall. Combined with the actual six of the dragon-neck part of the wall, the influence mechanism of temperature and rainfall is simplified, considering the diversification of temperature, and the impact of rainfall is simply attributed to the reduction of the strength index of the structure and hydrostatic pressure in the contact surface of soil and brick caused by seepage. With analysis of the nonlinear finite element software ABAQUS, quantitative influence of temperature and rainfall is respectively given in this article. Compared with measured datas of dragon neck area, the same tendency and quantification is found in both.%南京明城墙作为世界上目前残存规模最大的古城墙,其文物保护价值不言而喻。鼓胀作为一种常见损伤类型对城墙的危害极大,鼓胀主要是由温度、降雨等因素作用引起的。结合龙脖子段城墙,对温度和降雨的影响机理进行简化,考虑温度变化,并将降雨简化为复合墙体强度指标的下降及雨水渗入砖土接触面所产生的附加水压力的影响,采用非线性有限元软件ABAOUS进行计算分析,得出了温度和降雨对鼓胀的量化影响,并与现场实测鼓胀成果数据进行对比,发现二者趋势及量值基本一致。
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