基于灰色理论的电网负荷特性影响因素定量分析

摘要

定量地分析电网负荷特性的影响因素，对电力系统调度、规划和运行具有重要意义。针对数理统计中线性相关性分析方法必须假定影响因素之间满足线性相关性等不足，采用灰色关联度分析方法对电网负荷特性的影响因素进行分析，揭示了电网负荷特性的变化规律，并将所提理论应用于深圳电网负荷特性影响因素的定量分析中。验证结果表明：该方法简单，易于实现，且与数理统计中的相关性分析相比，该方法能更准确地揭示负荷特性的实际规律。%It is of great importance to quantitatively analyze load characteristic influencing factors for power system scheduling, plan-ning and operation. Considering the disadvantage of linear correlation analysis method in mathematical statistics that it must assume that there is a linear correlation between influencing factors, the grey correlation method is adopted to analyze the load characteristic influencing factors in this paper. From the example of Shenzhen Power Grid, we can see that this method reveals the change rule of load characteristic, and proves that it is simple, and easy to implement. Additionally, it is found that grey correlation method is more suitable than linear correlation analysis method for reflecting the actual regulation of load characteristic.