生育一孩弱化二孩生育意愿吗？--基于北京市“单独”家庭的考察

摘要

Based on the data of the fertility desire survey in Xicheng District of Beijing in 2013 , this paper examines the effect of the first child's birth on the urban “only-child” women's fertility desire of the second child in the families with one side of the couple without siblings by using description analysis , statistical test and logit model and the propensity score matching method is applied to control the influence of the self-selection problems too. The results show that the urban“only-child” women's fertility desire of the second child is not at a very low level. The birth of the first child can strengthen the fertility desire of the second child , and its effect is more prominent among the factors affecting the fertility desire of the second child. This finding may have some reference to the fertility desire estimate and fertility policy-making.%本文使用北京市西城区2013年生育意愿调查数据，基于不同的生育意愿测度指标，采用描述分析和回归分析方法检验城市“单独”家庭中生育一孩对二孩生育意愿的作用，并借助倾向值分析方法控制生育状况的自选择问题，从而使得研究结论更具稳健性和可靠性。结果表明，城市“单独”家庭的二孩生育意愿并不低迷，生育一孩能够强化育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿，而且生育状况的作用在生育意愿的众多影响因素中较为突出。上述结果需要在生育意愿的评估和生育政策的制定中有所关注。