延迟退休对减少基础养老金支付的效果①--基于未来人口年龄结构的探讨

摘要

近年来，延迟退休的问题引发了学术界和公众的热议。本文将研究视点置于未来中国人口年龄结构转变过程中，研究延迟退休对减少基础养老金支付的效果。单区域人口预测结果显示，未来二十年是中国15－44岁青壮年劳动年龄人口比例快速下降而45－64岁高龄劳动年龄人口比例快速上升的时期。基于此，本文认为，在这个人口年龄结构转变的时期（2015－2034年）内，应该尽快实施渐进式的延迟退休方案，并争取在这一时期完成渐进过程，发挥延迟退休在减少基础养老金支付上的最大效果。也就是说，在2015－2034年实施渐进式延退方案能最有力地弥补养老金缺口，缓解养老负担，从而在一定程度上实现“养老金红利”。对国家而言绝不能把延迟退休作为缓解养老金缺口的唯一手段，本文研究仅希望从中国未来人口年龄结构转变出发为延迟退休政策的制定提供一定参考。%In recent years, postponed retirement caused widely discussion by academia and the public. This paper focuses on the effects of postponed retirement on basic pension payment in the perspective of the future age structure in China. The future twenty years is to experience a rapid decline of population proportion aged from fifteen to forty-four and a rapid rising proportion of older working population aged from forty-five to sixty-four in China. Thus it is right to adopt gradual postponed retirement scheme in the shifting period of population age structure ( 2015-2034) as soon as possible. the postponed retirement scheme can effectively reduce the basic pension payment and can compensate the shortage of pension and realize the pension dividend on a certain degree. However, this conclusion can not be taken for granted by government to regard postponing retirement as the only means to solve the problem of pension shortage and can only be served as some reference policy-making in terms of the age structure change in China.