全球价值链分工下的双边贸易收益核算：以中美贸易为例

摘要

By constructing input-output model,We accounting the Sino-US bilateral trade income from the overall size,industry structure and the way of implementation. We find there is a large number of domestic value -added in bilateral export,compared with the added value of balance of trade,traditional statistical caliber of the Sino -US trade balance appear overvalued. The exports of China's goods trade to the US is significantly overvalued,and the export of service trade surplus is significantly undervalued. In bilateral trade,China's domestic value -added is less than seventy percent,while US's domestic value -added is more than eighty percent. most of the products of China's exports to US is final product and consumed in the United States,while a big part of US's exports to China is intermediates,turn -back and implementation in the form of exports to third countries.%通过构建双边贸易收益核算模型，从总体规模、行业结构、实现方式等层面对中美双边贸易收益进行核算。本文发现中美双边出口中均包含着大量的对方国内增加值，与增加值贸易差额比较，传统统计口径的中美贸易差额出现明显高估。其中，中国对美货物出口的贸易顺差被显著高估，而服务出口的贸易顺差被明显低估。在中美双边贸易中，中国对美出口包含的本国国内增加值比重不到七成，而美国对华出口包含的本国国内增加值比重超过八成。中国出口到美国的产品绝大部分表现为最终产品并且被美国当地消费，而美国出口到中国很大部分表现为中间品，并且通过对增值折返及对第三国出口的形式实现。