圈养大熊猫生命表及种群动态研究

摘要

The giant panda is Chinese endemic endangered species,and captivity is an important strategy for giant panda protection.The fourth giant panda survey published by the state forestry administration showed that the giant panda breeding protection work had gained gratifying achievements,and captive population scale developed rapidly.To evaluate the relationship between the development of captive population and the future growth trend,the survival curve of captive giant panda more than 100 days old,life table,mortality curve,survival curve,and innate increase capacity were estimated through analyzing the basic information of 990 captive giant pandas in the 2015 International Studbook for Giant Panda.The results showed that,the number of survival giant panda per year was more than 20 or even 30 from 2005,and more than 40 in 2013 and 2015.The captive giant panda had long life expectancy,low mortality between the ages of 2 and 25,and the vast majority of captive individuals could live to their biological age.All these findings suggested that the captive giant panda has relatively stable characteristics in their natural life;moreover,the net reproductive rate,innate increase capacity and finite rate of increase were 2.248 4,0.062 3 and 1.064 3,respectively.These results suggested that the population of captive giant pandas is a relatively stable,but still has a large space for development.%大熊猫Ailuropoda melanoleuca为我国特有濒危物种.圈养大熊猫是大熊猫保护的一项重要策略,国家林业局公布的全国第四次大熊猫调查结果显示,大熊猫的繁育保护工作取得可喜成绩,圈养种群规模快速发展.为评估圈养大熊猫种群的发展与圈养种群的未来增长趋势的关系,通过对大熊猫国际谱系(2015)内990只圈养大熊猫基本信息进行分析,统计各年内存活超过100 d的个体数量并绘制其存活曲线;编制圈养大熊猫种群的生命表,绘制死亡曲线及存活曲线,计算其内禀增长能力.结果显示:自2005年之后,每年存活的圈养大熊猫个体数量均超过20只,个别年份超过30只,2013年和2015年则超过40只;圈养大熊猫的寿命期望值较长,2～ 25岁死亡率低,绝大多数圈养个体都能活到生理年龄,在生理寿命上特征稳定;净增殖率、内禀增长率和周限增长率分别为2.248 4、0.062 3和1.064 3,说明圈养大熊猫种群目前仍存在发展上升的空间,种群结构整体上相对稳定.