中国短期资本总流入量的测算与分析

摘要

This paper analyzes the short-term capital inflows into China of four hidden and illegal channels, esti-mates the amount for each channel, and gives the total a-mount from 2001 -2009. With the scale model of the best short-term capital inflows, this paper compares and analyzes the actual the optimal total amount of short-term capital in-flows of 2001-2009. By comparing the analysis, we find that in recent years the deviation value between them has in-creased year by year. The lack of coordination will bring some hidden dangers to Chinese economic development and financial stability, so it is necessary to focus on short-term capital inflow channels.%本文分析了短期资本流入中国的四种隐性与非法渠道,分别估算了每种渠道流入中国的短期资本数量,给出了2001年-2009年流入中国的短期资本的总数量；借助最优短期资本流入规模模型,对比分析了2001年-2009年实际短期资本总流入量和最优短期资本总流入量；通过比较分析发现,近年来,中国实际短期资本总流入量和最优短期资本总流入量偏离值逐年增大,这种不协调会给中国经济发展和金融稳定带来一定的隐患,有必要对短期资本流入渠道进行重点关注.