P2P平台投资策略有效性的Heckman两阶段模型分析

摘要

全球金融市场经过长期发展逐渐成熟完善,基本能满足社会的发展需要,但在小额借贷方面却是一块相对空白的领域,P2P借贷平台应运而生.因其能解决小微企业融资困境,研究大多从筹资端出发,随着P2P违约事件的频发,从投资者角度研究更加重要.文章以此为切入点从投资者的角度探究两种投资策略的有效性:从众投资策略、自我判断策略.对美国最大P2P平台Prosper.com的数据进行分析,并利用Heckman两阶段模型对选择偏误进行修正,发现上述两种投资策略均能提高投资有效性,并且两者之间存在协同效应.%The paper analyzes P2P lending platform from the angle of investors,and discusses the effectiveness of the two investment strategies,including herding investment strategy,self-judgment investment strategy.The paper analyzes the bidding data of Prosper platform by Heckman two-stage model,and the result shows that the two investment strategies have significant positive impact on investment effectiveness,while synergistic effect can be observed between herding investment strategy and self-judgment investment strategy,which provides reference on strategy selection of investment on P2P lending platform.