长岛县近45年来四季降水特征及变化趋势分析

摘要

采用趋势分析法、Mann －Kendall 法对长岛县1970～2014近45年的四季降水量进行分析。结果表明：长岛县年度降水量分布不均，降水量最大年份（2009年）是最小年份（1999年）的3．8倍；降水主要集中在夏季；近45年长岛县春季和夏季降水量呈上升趋势，夏季上升明显，秋季和冬季降水量呈下降趋势，秋季下降明显；春季降水突变年份为2005、2010、2013年，夏季突变年份为2013年，秋季突变年份为1976年，冬季突变年份为1973年。%The seasonal precipitation variation characteristics of Changdao County in recent 45 years from 1970 to 2014 were analyzed by trend analysis and Mann -Kendall methods.The results showed that the annu-al precipitation distribution was uneven.The maximum precipitation,which occurred in 2009,was 3.8 times of the minimum one,which occurred in 1999.The precipitation mainly concentrated in summer.In recent 45 years,the precipitation in spring and summer showed a rising tendency,especially in summer;while it took on a declining curve in autumn and winter,especially in autumn.The abrupt change of precipitation appeared in spring of 2005,2010 and 2013,summer of 2013,autumn of 1976 and winter of 1973.