基于突变理论的工业园区环境风险评价

摘要

为改进现行环境风险评估方法的单一性和易受主观影响因素影响的不足, 引入突变级数理论, 建立基于突变技术法的工业园区环境风险评价多指标集成指标评价体系, 并以小蓝工业园区为研究样区开展了环境风险评价.结果显示, 样区的14家敏感企业均处于一般安全水平及以上, 其中, 有9家企业处于一般安全水平 (A∈[0.9538-0.9738));3家企业处于安全水平 (A∈[0.9538-0.9738));2家企业处于很安全水平 (A∈[0.9884-1]) .并将处于一般安全水平的9家企业和风险值最低的企业 (金沙化工) 分别作为园区风险管理的重点和重中之重.%To improve the shortcomings of oneness of current environmental risk assessment methods and being easily influenced by subjective factors, the catastrophe theory was introduced to establish a multi-parameter integrated index system for environmental risk assessment in the industrial park area based on the catastrophe progression method. Moreover, the proposed index system has been employed for the environmental risk assessment in Xiaolan industrial park. The results show that the 14 sensitive enterprises are all in a general or higher safety levels, among which, 9 enterprises are in the general safety level (A∈[0.9538-0.9738)), 3 enterprisesare in the safetylevel (A∈[0.9538-0.9738)), and the other2 enterprisesare in the high safetylevel (A∈[0.9884-1]).Inaddition, the9 enterprisesinthegeneralsafetylevelandtheenterpriseatthe minimumrisk value (NanchangJinshachemicalrawmaterialsco., LTD) aretakenasthefocusandthetoppriorityofriskmanagement, respectively.