The previously consistent relationship of rate between economic growth and electricity consumption has been changed significantly with the coming of new normal economy.For this reason,the traditional electricity demand forecasting methods based on the economic total amount no longer accurately grasp the current trend of electricity consumption.In view of this,taking Anhui province as an example,the underlying reasons for the inconsistent relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption are analyzed under the new normal. Taking the characteristics of new relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption into account,a forecasting model system for electricity demand is constructed,which is based on the relationship of industry economy and electricity consumption. The actual data is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed method,and results prove that the new system has high prediction accuracy.%随着我国经济进入新常态,以往经济与用电增速总体趋同的关系发生了明显的变化,导致基于经济总量等的传统用电需求预测手段不能准确把握当前用电走势.鉴于此,以安徽省为例,对新常态下经济与用电增速走势不匹配的深层次原因进行剖析,并结合新常态下经济与用电关系特征,构建了基于行业经济与用电关系的用电需求预测模型体系.实证结果表明,该模型具有较高的预测精度.
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