建设用地需求预测方法研究——以山东省东平县为例

摘要

针对传统预测方法不能同时兼顾市场经济与政策对建设用地需求影响的不足,提出综合分析法,并以山东省东平县为例,将此分析法预测的用地需求与一元线性回归法、灰色系统GM(1,1)预测结果进行比较,从而评价综合分析法的可信度与准确性.运用综合分析法预测东平县近期(2010年)建设用地需求为16342.36 hm2、远期(2020年)需求为17620.79 hm2.该分析法对土地利用规划中的建设用地需求预测有借鉴意义.%As traditional forecasting methods could not take into account the influence of market economy and policy on construction land demand, this paper compares the forecast of construction land demand with the predicted results derived from the unitary linear regression model, gray system ＧM (1,1) applying comprehensive analysis method and taking Dongping County as an example, thus evaluating the reliability and accuracy of comprehensive analysis method. It is predicted based on comprehensive analysis method that construction land demand in 2010 is 16 342.36 hm2 and 17 620.79 hm2 in 2020. Research result is valuable for land use planning of Dongping Country. Comprehensive analysis method is a scientific forecasting method of construction land demand and has great referential significance in the prediction of construction land demand.