By means of the forecasting methods of Malthusian growth model, comprehensive growth, linear regressiorn, GM (1, 1)mathemetical model and nonlinear regression, this paper predicts the number of population and the minimum per capita arable land area of Shandong Province during 2010 to 2020, and then calculates the security baseline of cultivated land in this province. The result shows that with the increase of population and per capita food demand, the security baseline of cultivated land will be proportionately raised, with the cultivated land acreage in 2010, 2015and 2020 lower than the security baseline,i. e. , 53. 347×104 hm2 lower in 2010, 125. 789× 104hm2 lower in 2015 and 217. 437× 104 hm2 lower in 2020, which means there is still a huge gap between the acreage of cultivated land and the security baseline. The paper proposes effective measures and countermeasures for the protection of cultivated land safety to solve the problem of the sustainable use of cultivated land between the area and security baseline.%利用马尔萨斯人口增长模型、综合增长法、线性回归法、GM(1,1)数学模型、非线性回归模型等预测方法对山东省2010 -2020年人口数量、最小人均耕地面积进行预测,最后测算出耕地资源数量安全底线.结果表明,随着人口数量及人均粮食需求量的增加,耕地资源安全底线越高,预测2010年、2015年及2020年耕地面积分别比耕地安全底线低53.347×104hm2、125.789×104hm2及217.437×104hm2.为解决耕地面积与安全底线之间耕地可持续利用的问题,提出保护耕地资源安全的有效措施和对策.
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