Analysis has been done of the content of seven heavy metal elements in the research area to know about the pollution caused by heavy metals. Borda fussy decision method is used for assessment and a model of prognosis and early warning is formed. The results show that the quality of soil along Dawu River basin is high, with mild contamination near the bank of the middle and lower reaches, and that in some areas soil has been contaminated by such heavy metal elements as Cu, As and Hg and this contamination may spread to other areas in the next 60 years. Early warning of pollution has been issued near the banks of the middle and lower reaches. Slow deterioration warning is issued at the two sampling points farther away from the bank of the lower reaches, and rapid deterioration warning is issued at other sampling points. Accordingly, we can evaluate, predict and make warning for the soil quality of Dawu River Basin.%对研究区土壤中Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd、As、Hg及Cr这7种重金属元素含量进行分析,以了解重金属对该区的污染状况.采用Borda模糊决策方法评价,并建立预测和预警模型.结果表明:大坞河流域土壤整体质量良好,只是在中下游地区靠近河岸处有部分轻度污染；在大坞河流域部分地区土壤已经受到Cu、As、Hg污染,并且在未来60年内,在其他地区可能还会受到这些元素污染；中下游靠近河岸处发出污染预警,下游离河岸较远的2个取样点发出缓慢恶化预警,其他取样点发出迅速恶化预警.
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