人民币国际化推进路径及其对上海的意义

摘要

To successfully promote a sign of the internationalization of RMB-denominated share of the improvement of international market, rather than the amount of the share of central bank reserve assets. Internationalization of the RMB should be taken to the pre-steady demand creation, post-radical release of a supply strategy. Development should be quick to promote the export of capital, and strengthen overseas business exist to speed up financial restructuring, the promotion of local capital market discipline and depth, and begin to promote the international exchange rates and short-term management of capital flows from Asia. Shanghai in the next few years should strengthen the institutional infrastructure of the capital market, improve the service functions of the real economy and efficiency.%人民币国际化成功推进的标志是国际市场计价份额的提高，而不是央行储备资产份额的多少。前者帮助中国一劳永逸地避免汇率风险，后者只是让其他国家分享中国的高成长。人民币国际化应采取前期稳健创造需求、后期激进释放供给的推进策略。当前应快速推进（美元与人民币双币种）资本输出，强化海外商业存在；加快金融转型，促进本土资本市场规范而有深度的发展；并从亚洲着手推动国际汇率和短期资本流动的管理。其仿真预测分析结果是2025年人民币国际化程度有可能接近欧元水平。这对上海的意义是：未来5～10年应加强资本市场的基础制度建设，健全为实体经济服务的功能与效率；债券市场发展可有重大突破；涉外现代服务业需要加快发展。