覆膜条件下对AquaCrop模型冬小麦生长动态和土壤水分模拟效果的评价分析

摘要

[Objective] This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the AquaCrop model in the simulation of winter wheat growth,soil moisture,yield,and water use efficiency under plastic mulching,which can provide a theoretical basis and scientific method for the calibration of the AquaCrop model under plastic mulching.[Method] The experiment was conducted at Yangling,Shaanxi,from 2013 to 2016 including the flat planting under plastic mulching (PM) and a control treatment without mulching (CK).The AquaCrop model was calibrated using the experiment data in 2014-2015 and was validated using the data in 2013-2014 and 2015-2016.[Result] The determination coefficient (R2) of the simulated and the measured canopy cover was between 0.86 and 0.99.The root mean square error (RMSE) of the simulated and the measured canopy cover was between 2.1％ and 8.1％,indicating AquaCrop model a good simulation for canopy cover.The R2 of the simulated and the measured biomass was greater than 0.95.Meanwhile,the RMSE of the simulated and the measured biomass was between 0.814 and 1.933 t·hm-2.The R2 of the simulated and the measured soil water content in CK was greater than 0.85,and the R2 of the simulated and the measured soil water content in PM was greater than 0.75.The RMSE of the simulated and the measured soil water content in both CK and PM was between 9.2 and 17.6 mm.The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of the simulated and the measured soil water content in both CK and PM was lower than 5.5.Moreover,the RE of the simulated and the measured yield in both CK and PM was from-4.4％ to 9.0％.The simulated and the measured yield in PM increased 40.5％ and 40.3％ compared to that in CK,respectively,and there was a significant difference between CK and PM.The RE of the simulated and the measured water use efficiency in both CK and PM was from-10.4％ to-1.5％.The simulated and the measured water use efficiency in PM increased by 54.1％ and 47.5％ compared to that in CK,respectively,and there was also a significant difference between CK and PM.The results showed that the simulated and measured values had the similar trend in wheat canopy coverage,biomass,yield,and water use efficiency.Those indicated a good performance of the AquaCrop model in modeling plastic mulching treatment.[Conclusion] The AquaCrop model can be used to model the winter wheat growing development and productivity under plastic mulching.This study provides a scientific method to calibrate the AquaCrop model and a good data support for the application and development of the AquaCrop model.%[目的]通过评价AquaCrop模型对覆膜条件下冬小麦的生长发育、土壤水分、产量以及水分利用效率的模拟效果,为AquaCrop模型在覆膜条件下的校准和应用提供科学的方法和理论依据.[方法]试验设置不覆盖(CK)和白色地膜覆盖(PM)两个处理,于2013年10月至2016年6月年在陕西杨凌进行田间试验,利用2014-2015年度试验数据对AquaCrop模型进行参数校准,利用2013-2014年度和2015-2016年度的冬小麦观测数据对AquaCrop模型进行验证.[结果]AquaCrop模型较好地模拟了冬小麦冠层覆盖度,冠层覆盖度模拟值和实测值之间的决定系数(R2)为0.86-0.99,均方根误差(RMSE)为2.1％-8.1％.AquaCrop模型也较好地模拟了冬小麦生物量和土壤贮水量,其中地上部生物量的模拟值和实测值之间的R2均大于0.95,RMSE为0.814-1.933 t·hm2;CK土壤贮水量模拟值和实测值间的相关系数均大于0.85,PM土壤贮水量模拟值和实测值间的相关系数均大于0.75,CK和PM土壤贮水量模拟值和实测值的均方根误差表现为9.2 mm＜ RMSE＜ 17.6 mm,标准均方根误差(NRMSE)小于5.5％.冬小麦产量实测值和模拟值相对误差(RE)为-4.4％-9.0％,PM产量实测值和模拟值的平均值较CK分别提高40.5％和40.3％,表现出较好的一致性,处理间成显著性差异.水分利用效率实测值和模拟值RE为-10.4％-1.5％,PM水分利用效率实测值和模拟值的平均值较CK分别提高54.1％和47.5％,同样表现出较好的一致性,处理间成显著性差异.在冠层覆盖度、地上部生物量、产量和水分利用效率方面,模型模拟值和实测值的变化趋势基本一致,且PM模拟值和实测值间均较CK表现出显著性差异.[结论]AquaCrop模型能够较好地模拟覆膜条件下冬小麦生长发育过程,可以用于覆膜条件下作物生产力的模拟和预测,为AquaCrop模型的推广应用提供了可靠的数据支持.