现代物流业对进出口贸易影响的实证研究

摘要

In order to verify the impact of modern logistics on import & export trade, the relevant data in 1986 -2009 of Zhejiang turnover volume of freight traffic and import & export is applied to carry out regressions. Then, flexibility model is used to analyze the contribution ratio of logistics to the import & export trade. The result shows that; the development of lo-gistics positively promotes the import & export trade; the 1% increase of logistics would mean that the trade amount of im-port and export will increase 2. 90% in Zhejiang. Finally, some suggestions for developing modern logistics to promoting foreign trade are put forward.%基于浙江省1986-2009年货物周转量与进出口贸易的相关数据进行回归分析,以验证现代物流业对进出口贸易是否有影响.接着,根据弹性理论建立计算模型,定量测算物流产业对进出口贸易增长的促进程度.结果表明:物流业发展对进出口贸易增长具有显著的促进作用；就浙江而言,物流业发展水平每提高1％,进出口贸易额平均提高2.90％；物流发展对进出口贸易的促进程度随时间变化有所差异.最后,提出若干建议.