我国技术预见研究综述

摘要

From the retrieval of literature,technology foresight research content of the domestic scholar focus on the meth-ods and practices of foreign countries,andapplied research of China's provinces and industry.The method mainly includes Delphi method,technology roadmaps,patent analysis,bibliometrics,etc.However,empirical studies of the technology foresight of domestic aremainly based on Delphi,expert interviews and other qualitative methods.Astotechnologyforesight, there are less studies that apply quantitative method,such aspatentintelligence analysis,bibliometrics,science map.In addition,there are less studied on quality evaluation of technology foresight.%从检索文献看，国内学者的技术预见研究内容集中在国外方法及实践介绍、省市及行业的应用研究，在方法上则涵盖德尔菲法、技术路线图、专利分析、文献计量等方面。但是国内的技术预见理论及应用研究还是以德尔菲法、专家访谈等定性方法为主，将专利分析、文献计量、科学图谱等定量方法应用到技术预见的研究较少。另外，关于技术预见效果的评估方面的研究较少。