广东省能源消费碳排放的多变量驱动因素——基于扩展的STIRPAT模型

摘要

区域层面能源消费碳排放的影响因素解析是有效实现碳减排的重要研究议题.以经典的IPAT模型为基础,采用扩展的STIRPAT环境压力评价模型,对1990-2014年广东省能源消费碳排放的主要驱动因素进行时间序列分析,并定量研究各个驱动因素对于区域碳排放的作用机理与影响机制,主要研究结论如下:各个影响因素对广东省碳排放增长的作用机理与影响机制各不相同,经济增长、固定资产投资和工业发展是碳排放增长的最主要影响因素,人口规模和城镇化对碳排放增长作用显著,技术进步和能源结构是遏制碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子.%Analysis on driving factors of energy related carbon emissions from the regional perspective is necessary and helpful for China to achieve its reduction targets.An extended STIRPAT model based on the classical IPAT identity is used to determine the main driving factors for energy related carbon emissions in Guangdong.Research results show that the impacts and influences of various factors on carbon emissions are different.Economic growth,fixed assets investment and industrial development are the three dominant contributors to the carbon emissions increments,as well as population size and urbanization,while technological progress and energy consumption structure play the important negative effects on carbon emissions.