影响中国原油进口量主要因素的实证分析

摘要

In recent years, as the rapid development of China’ s economy, demand for crude oil is also increasing constantly. But due to the shortage of do-mestic crude oil supply, China’ s crude oil import scale is huge and growing continuously, the dependence on foreign trades is rising year by year. This paper builds the econometric model by the method of OLS multivariate regression with the related data from 1990 to 2013, to find out the main factors which influ-ence China’ s crude oil import. The result shows that:the global crude oil production, China’ s GDP and coal consumption are the main factors. Finally this paper puts forward relevant recommendations.%近年来，随着中国经济迅速发展，对原油的需求量不断加大，由于国内原油供给不足，中国原油进口数量持续增长，进口规模巨大，对外依存度逐年攀升，面临较大安全隐患。以1990~2013年相关数据为样本，采用OLS多元回归方法对影响中国原油进口贸易的因素进行实证分析。结果表明：世界原油产量、中国国内生产总值以及中国煤炭消费量是影响中国原油进口量的主要因素。据此，提出了相关建议。