流动性过剩研究新视角--基于经济剩余的思考

摘要

Excess liquidity is almost introduced to explain economic issues in the terms of currency caliber.In this paper,excess liquidity in eco-nomic system is redefined as the remaining that liquid assets compensates the expected consumption and venture. According new measure of excess liquidity based on the annual data from 1990-2014 in China,micro excess liquidity is sustainable while macro excess liquidity is alternative. And the result of analysis is evidenced that excess liquidity is unharmful to the growth of economy as well as the improvement of consumption.%流动性核算多从货币口径度量。借鉴经济剩余的思想，经济系统流动性过剩是流动性资产补偿预期消费和风险的剩余。通过1990-2014年年度数据核算我国流动性过剩情况：微观流动性长期过剩，宏观流动性过剩或短缺依次出现。通过对流动性增长率和流动性过剩时间序列进行分析，结果表明，我国的流动性适度过剩或紧缩对经济持续增长和改善消费环境并无害处。