一种改进煤矿内因火灾危险性评价方法

摘要

Due to the complex geological conditions and the lack of test materials,the influence factors of coal mine are random,fuzzy,grey and unknown,which can not determine the reasonable weight,which results in inaccurate evaluation results.To solve these problems,the D-S theory is introduced into the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Using the method of conflict evidence synthesis in D-S theory,we eliminate the conflict between data fusion to determine the index weight,and solve the problem of too absolute traditional weight allocation process so as to provide a reasonable basis for the accurate evaluation of mine fire hazard rating.The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the fire risk of Xingan Coal Mine.The case study shows that the D-S theory can take into account the uncertainty of the index in the fire risk assessment,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on D-S theory has high precision and high application value.%由于地质条件的复杂和试验材料的欠缺,煤矿内因火灾危险性评价中影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰性、未知性等不确定性,无法确定合理权重,导致评价结果不准确.针对此问题,将D-S理论引入到模糊综合评价方法中,利用D-S理论的冲突证据合成方法,消除融合数据之间的冲突性来确定指标权重,解决了传统权重分配过程中过于绝对化的问题,从而为准确评价煤矿内因火灾危险等级提供合理依据.运用改进的模糊综合评价方法对兴安煤矿火灾危险性评价,评价结果为“较安全”,符合工程实际.实例分析表明:D-S理论在内因火灾危险性评价中能更好地考虑指标的不确定性,基于D-S理论的模糊综合评价精度较高,具有较高的应用价值.