商业模式与商业银行财务绩效因果关系的实证研究

摘要

In the generalized virtual economy, the importance of business model has drawn greater attention. But there are few researches involved whether the business model can really bring about the improvement of financial performance. The paper selects 16 commercial banks in our country as samples. With the factor analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the commercial bank business model, using panel unit root test, panel cointegration test and panel Granger causality test, the relationship between business model and bank performance are studied. The results show that no matter in short-term or long-term, business model is the Granger cause to enhance financial performance of commercial banks ,and the bank’s financial perfor-mance can also cause the change of business model during a longer short-term or long term.%在广义虚拟经济背景下，商业模式的重要性越来越引起各方关注，但商业模式是否真的可以带来财务绩效的提升，相关的研究却很少涉及。基于此，本文选取我国16家商业银行为样本，首先通过因子分析法对商业银行商业模式进行综合评价，在此基础上运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验、面板格兰杰因果检验对商业模式与银行财务绩效之间的关系进行研究。基于我国上市银行2007-2014年的经验数据，研究结果表明无论是短期还是长期，商业模式变化都是引起商业银行财务绩效变化的格兰杰原因。在较长的短期和长期，商业银行财务绩效变化也会引起商业模式变化。