中国股价及房价对居民银行净储蓄的影响--基于状态空间模型的实证研究

摘要

本文致力于研究近年引起来我国居民银行净储蓄减少的重要因素---资产价格。以状态空间模型检验了2000年1季度至2009年4季度股价和房价对居民银行净储蓄的影响。股票和房地产市场对居民银行净储蓄都有分流作用，且房价对居民银行净储蓄的影响大于股价的影响，特别是在2006年以后更加明显。因此，在平抑资产价格异常波动的前提下，发展股票和房地产等资产市场应当是今后较长时期内分流中国居民银行储蓄积极而有效的途径，它不仅有助于居民分散资产风险，而且能够增加居民资产收入，更好地提升可持续的中长期消费能力。%This paper deals with the important factor that causes a decrease of residents’net bank deposits, i. e. the asset price. The role of stock price and housing price to residents’net bank deposits during the first quarter of 2000 to the end of 2009 has been tested by state space model. The results show that stock price and housing price have shunting effect to residents’net bank deposits in China,and the latter has greater influences than the former, particularly after 2006. Therefore,it will be an effective way for the diversion of household deposits to stabilize the asset price,develop the stock market and real estate market. Such measures could not only help to reduce assets risks,but also to increase the residents’income and enhance the long - and medium term purchasing power of the residents constantly.