一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型

摘要

In order to solve the problem of how to combine the national renewable energy plan and provincial renewable energy plan, and combine with China's reality, the paper presents a target disintegration model based on renewable energy potential and energy consumption. With the model, and according to actual needs, the decision-makers may determine the priority of resource and the needs distribution by adjusting the size of the coordination factors. After the regional development goals were determined, based on the learning curve of renewable energy development,the model gives the phase targets of renewable energy in every the provinces. In order to verify the model, combining with the National Renewable Energy demand for the overall planning and resource distribution, the paper proposed the target for medium and long development plan for the provinces.%为了解决国家可再生能源规划与省域可再生能源规划相衔接的问题,结合中国实际,提出一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型,考虑了现状、资源及消费情况,把目标分为基本份额、固定份额和浮动份额3部分.模型给出了一个协调因子的确定方法,决策者可以根据实际需要,确定其资源潜力和能源消费的比重关系.以北京和福建为例,给出了协调因子变化时,可再生能源份额的变化情况.为了验证该模型的正确性,结合国家可再生能源整体规划和资源需求分布状况,提出了各省域的可再生能源中长期目标.