西藏地区太阳能辐射短时间变化及分析

摘要

针对光伏电站并网点功率的短时间波动问题,利用编译的分析软件和西藏地区某光伏电站2012年太阳辐射实时数据,对太阳辐射短时间内变化的分布规律、变化速率的分布区间以及发生概率等进行了详细分析.分析结果表明,影响光伏电站并网点功率短时间波动的主要原因是云层的变化;虽然西藏地区太阳能辐射资源比较丰富,但是太阳辐射变化较快,在短时间(4 min)内,能从100％降到10.2％,在大于4 min的时间内,还能下降得更低；全年每分钟太阳辐射变化速率达到883W/m2,并呈现冬春秋季变化速率较低,夏季变化速率最高的年际变化规律.%A bstract:For the problem of power fluctuations of megawatt PV plant that has been put into operation in the Tibet area,using the compiled analysis software and real time solar radiation data in a Tibet's PV plant,the characteristics of solar radiation change during a short period of time such as distribution regularities,the distribution interval of the change rate and probability etc.are analyzed.Results show that the main reason of PV plant's power fluctuation was the short time changes of the cloud.Although the solar radiation resources in Tibet are very rich,solar radiation changes quickly.In a short time (within 4 min),active power of PV plant can reduce from 100％ to 10.2％,and if more than 4 minutes,could fall too much.The maximum of solar radiation variation reaches up to 883 W/m2 per minute over the whole year.The annual change trend is that the solar radiation variation is small in fall,winter and spring,is great in summer.