基于改进型灰色理论模型的山区高速铁路路基沉降变形分析

摘要

Settlement analysis is one of the key processes and necessary requirements in ballast track construction.This paper takes Chongqing-Wanzhou Railway as an example,and employs improved grey prediction models of NpGM (1,1) and UQGM (1,1) to analyze settlement and deformation during ballast track construction.The two models have more stable and correlative prediction compared with that of the traditional method.For the nine test points,NpGM (1,1) and UQGM (1,1) obtain the correlation value bigger than 0.97,which is significantly better than the value obtained by the traditional method (around 0.8,and bigger than 0.9 for only a few test points);the S(t)/S(∞) values obtained by the improved models are close or equal to 1.0,which is much larger than the traditional model.The results show that the improved models are applicable in the prediction of south-west mountain railways settlement and deformation and may provide references for deformation prediction of similar mountain railway subgrade.%线下工程工后沉降变形分析评估是高速铁路轨道工程铺设的必要条件和关键工序之一.以重庆至万州铁路为例,在有砟轨道铁路施工过程中,引入改进型灰色预测模型NpGM(1,1)和UQGM(1,1)进行沉降变形分析,相比于传统的预测方法,两种改进型的灰色预测模型在预报的稳定性和相关性上有显著提升.对于考虑到的9个测点,改进型灰色预测模型得到的相关性均大于0.97,明显优于传统模型(相关系数为0.8左右,个别站点超过0.9);改进型模型得到的S(t)/S(∞)均接近或者等于1,显著高于传统模型.结果适用于西南山区高速铁路沉降变形评估预报,可以为类似区域的铁路路基沉降预测提供参考.